For many years, I have been monitoring the changes of wind flow, resultant high waves and rain for Malaysian region /other areas (overseas) of interest.
On first week of Nov 2009, A strong NE monsoon surge coupled with a incoming 'weather system'. brought heavy rainfall (and resultant flood) to the NE coast and Kedah/Perlis.
On 21-23rd Nov 2009, a weather system ('low pressure' which was advised by Guan Typhon Centre as a possibility to develop into a more severe weather system) developed in-situ off the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia, and brought heavy rain again to east coast states. This pressure system was advised by the Malaysian Weather Department to hit the land of east coast to result to more rain /thus flood , but I preferred movement away (to East towards central South China Sea) from Peninsular Malaysia. Indeed, this weather pattern moved away to East and We in Peninsular Malaysia has beautiful sunshine from 25/11/09 (and relatively calm sea for fishermen to get their catch).
Alas, this weather system is now making a U-turn tn head back towards Peninsular to bring strong winds, high waves and heavy rain again (and thus flood to east coast states) by 29-30 Nov 2009.
I attach a image of the path of this weather system (a 'low pressure')